The hottest SARS is gradually under control, and t

2022-10-23
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SARS is gradually under control, and the consumption heat wave is quietly brewing

affected by the SARS epidemic, although the consumption growth in cities is slowing down, rural consumption is still growing; Many consumption plans have not been canceled, but just postponed. Considering from many aspects, this is only a short-term loss, and the overall momentum of consumption after SARS will not weaken - one ebb and flow: the consumption heat wave is quietly brewing

the sudden attack of SARS has had a certain impact on China's fast-moving economic train. Deepak, chief economist of the world bank in China, recently A speech at the Symposium on "SARS and Asian economy" said that now affected by SARS, China's urban consumption growth has slowed down, but rural consumption is still growing; although many people's consumption needs have not been carried out due to the impact of SARS, many of their consumption plans have not been cancelled, but only postponed. Therefore, considering from many aspects, although China will have some problems in the short term due to the impact of SARS But China is still one of the regions with the fastest economic growth. Xie Guozhong, chief economist of Morgan Stanley in the Asia Pacific region, said that judging from the situation in recent months, China's economy has been greatly impacted in the international tourism, catering, entertainment, beer and other industries. After removing a certain lag effect, the investment situation of foreign capital should return to normal by September, and there should be strong growth after the economy is completely free from the impact of SARS. Wu Ying, President of UT Starcom, said that in the SARS epidemic, the telecommunications industry has not been adversely affected. Instead, people have used more means of communication to reduce direct contact, and the volume of telecommunications business has increased. In overseas markets, the share prices of some telecom stocks such as China Mobile and China Unicom have risen

the service industry was temporarily impacted

the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics showed that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in April increased by 7.7% year-on-year, but decreased by 1.5 percentage points from the 9.2% increase in the first quarter of this year. The catering market was severely hit. In April, the sales of catering industry increased by only 2.1% year-on-year, with a growth rate of 12 percentage points lower than that of the same month last year and 13 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, of which 14 provinces (districts and cities) showed negative growth. Large department stores have also been severely impacted. It is estimated that the sales volume has decreased by 60% - 90% year-on-year

let's take a closer look at Beijing, where the SARS epidemic is relatively serious, and its tertiary industry has been hit unprecedentedly. Yu Xiuqin, a spokesman for the Beijing Municipal Bureau of statistics, said recently that the tertiary industry in Beijing accounts for more than 60% of the city's economy, and about one third of the whole industry is affected by SARS this time. It is preliminarily estimated that in April, several industries such as transportation, tourism, hotels, commercial catering and entertainment services affected the added value of the tertiary industry by about 450million yuan, affecting the growth rate of the month by 2.9 percentage points

SARS has hit Beijing's tourism industry hard. In April, the added value lost about 440million yuan, but the "May Day", which was originally "gold", has "no harvest" this year. In April, compared with the same period last year, the number of overseas tourists received by Beijing decreased by 59.9%; The number of domestic tourists received by foreign hotels in Beijing decreased by 21.4%; The loss of tourism foreign exchange income in that month was US $190million, about 1.57 billion yuan. The number of tourists to major tourist attractions in Beijing decreased significantly. According to the statistics of 20 major tourist attractions, the number of domestic and foreign tourists decreased by 51.7%, and the operating income decreased by 49.6%

according to preliminary estimates, SARS caused a loss of 1.7 billion yuan in retail sales of social consumer goods in Beijing in April, 10 percentage points lower than the growth rate in the previous three months. The impact of SARS on Beijing's commerce is mainly concentrated in the catering industry and large department stores, and the impact on the transportation industry is concentrated in the passenger transport industry. The SARS epidemic caused the catering industry in Beijing to decline for the first time since 2000. The retail sales in April reached 830 million yuan, a decrease of 280million yuan from March, a decrease of 4% from the same month last year. Compared with the first quarter, the growth rate fell by nearly 40 percentage points. The epidemic has seriously impacted large department stores. The year-on-year retail sales of 19 department stores such as Xidan mall fell by 17.6%, of which the daily passenger flow of Wangfujing Department Store fell sharply from 200000 to 7000, and the daily sales volume fell from 2 million yuan to 4.5 million yuan. The impact of SARS on the lives of Beijing residents is also increasingly evident. In April, the per capita consumption expenditure of residents was 801.3 yuan, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 11.6 percentage points year-on-year

Experts believe that the impact of SARS on Beijing's economy will peak in May and June

from the impact on the national transportation industry, since April, the growth rate of passenger and freight has declined at the same time, and the decline of passenger transport volume is more obvious than that of freight transport. Due to the impact of the SARS epidemic, especially the prohibition of students from colleges and universities and the obstruction of travel agencies, it is expected that the passenger volume will still decline in the next few months, and the impact on cargo transportation will also appear. It is reported that the passenger volume completed in April was 1.218 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, which reduced the cumulative growth rate of the whole society's passenger volume from January to April by 3 percentage points compared with the first quarter. The passenger volume of the railway in April was 71million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%; The highway completed 1.128 billion passengers in the month, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2%; The passenger volume of civil aviation in that month was 06 million, down 25.7%. Since May, the number of flights has continued to decrease, and the passenger volume has continued to decline

since April, China's exports have also felt the pressure brought by SARS. The spring Canton Fair, which was squeezed out of the threshold in previous years, is not as usual this year. Export orders have decreased significantly, with a turnover of only $4.42 billion. Compared with last spring's Canton Fair, which received more than 120000 visitors and had a turnover of US $16.8 billion, the decline was obvious. In addition, according to the relevant departments of Hangzhou, the signing of investment attraction in April has actually stagnated. They predict that SARS will affect the city's trade exports by at least $500million, with a corresponding impact on GDP growth of about 0.5 percentage points

consumption hot spots take advantage of the trend

while reducing going out, people rely more on communication with networks, which drives the growth of communication equipment and electronic computers, and stimulates the consumption of family cars. In April, the output of optical communication equipment and electronic computers increased by 97.5% and 95.7% year-on-year, the output of mobile computers increased by 46.9%, and the output of cars increased by 83.6%

for the automobile manufacturing industry, SARS has instead stimulated consumption. Because taking the subway, bus and even taxi has uncertain risks, many families have advanced their car purchase plans by several months or even a year or two. In Beijing, 34000 cars were sold in April, an increase of 21.4% over March and 12.1% over the same month last year; New car sales are particularly promising. A total of 23000 new cars were sold in April, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. New car sales have exceeded the same period last year for the first time since this year. Although the number of customers in the automobile trading market has decreased, the transaction rate of automobile trading has risen all the way without obvious trachoma, bubbles, shortcomings, etc. - now everyone understands the performance of automobiles through various channels. When coming to the automobile market, many unqualified products can still pass the acceptance, that is, they buy cars directly, which is generally "quick decision"! In the case of the central court of the people's Republic of China, there was a great deal of money and money, but it was not easy to cut the stool at the bottom of the stool). In the case of the central court of the people's Republic of China, there was a great deal of money and money. In the case of the central court of the people's Republic of China, the heart of the stool took advantage of the earth's condyles to make a great deal of money and money? A total of 822 cars were sold from January 1 to September 9, far exceeding people's expectations. 100% of car buyers were "individuals"; On May 9 alone, the car market received more than 1400 customers, and the passenger flow was several times that of the "May Day" period. Compared with the quick decision of car buyers, the change in the car rental industry is that the time for car renters to rent cars has increased significantly due to SARS. A manager of a car rental company said that all but a few of the more than 1300 cars in his company had just been rented out of the repair shop. Among them, 50% of the lease term is more than one month, and 30% - 40% of the lease term is about one month

when department stores, clothing and other stores are relatively deserted, some daily necessities are still consumed normally, and the consumption of daily necessities such as food and daily necessities is not greatly affected. At the entrance of Carrefour, Tiankelong and other supermarkets, there are an endless stream of customers carrying rice, oil, milk, instant noodles and other food. "Disinfected household appliances" are selling hot, and at this time, many household appliance manufacturers have taken advantage of the situation to play the SARS brand. According to the salesperson of Beijing Gome electric appliance company, the products that users urgently need to buy recently are mainly disinfection cabinets, oxygen bar air conditioners with oxygen making and anti-virus functions, roller washing machines with high-temperature sterilization functions, health care dual power washing machines, microwave ovens, disinfection dishwashing cabinets and small refrigerators. In terms of shopping methods, consumers are basically Go directly to the counter where you want to buy goods, Leave in a hurry after buying - salesmen call this recently popular shopping method "target shopping".

sports consumption was extremely prosperous during the SARS period. Because the final victory over SARS depends on improving their immunity and physical fitness. In large and medium-sized cities across the country, sports goods consumption has become a dominant force these days. "Everyone in the mall sells badminton rackets well. The whole mall can sell thousands of badminton rackets a day." The person in charge of Taiyuan Guoti mall said that not only badminton rackets, but also other things such as rackets, children's scooters and roller skates are also selling well, and some scooters are out of stock

in addition to companies that have always taken ordering as a special sales method, many businesses in Beijing have opened shopping during this period. Suning Electric Appliance and Dazhong Electric Appliance City, which are large-scale in Beijing, regard shopping and door-to-door delivery as the main sales channels at present. According to the person in charge of Suning Electric Appliance, since the opening of shopping on April 26, more than 100 household appliances can be sold every day, with the largest sales of more than 500000 yuan a day. In addition, some restaurants in Beijing have also actively carried out takeout and door-to-door delivery services, and some have also launched Valet shopping services. When customers need daily necessities, they can be purchased by delivery personnel. When they are delivered to the door, they are settled according to the cashier's receipt in shopping malls and supermarkets, which is very popular with customers. The number of bank credit card applications has surged. According to the relevant person in charge of the Peony Card Center of ICBC, in the five days from May 1 to May 5 alone, the Peony Card Center received more than 2000 customers who came to handle card collection, card replacement, password reset, salary payment and other businesses. The average number of daily card applications is four times that of ordinary people if the impact proof machine system could be properly modified. According to the statistics of China UnionPay Shanghai Branch, during the May Day holiday this year, 365000 card swipes were made in Shanghai, with a total transaction volume of 443million yuan. The number and amount of transactions doubled over the same period last year

During the SARS period, shopping and direct selling, which were different from the traditional consumption mode, were surprisingly popular. According to the industry, During the "May Day" period, or even longer, it will be a happy holiday for B2C e-commerce. Zhuoyue, the B2C e-commerce station that currently ranks first in China, has its employees busy every day, "The number of orders given by each employee has increased from more than 10 in the past to dozens of orders, which is overloaded. In March alone, the sales volume of excellence shopping was 12million yuan, 15million yuan in the first 20 days of April, and now there are about 5000 signed orders every day." because of SARS,

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